Main » 2010 » August » 10 » Country& Team prediction '11 updated and Graphical view added
Country& Team prediction '11 updated and Graphical view added
Finaly an update on the predicted country & team ranking.
Of course Q4 will be very important again for the ranking, but some things can already be seen. Like Villarreal participation (that I included in the latest view) has an good effect on Spains coefficient.
Olympiakos elimination costed Greece chances on a possible participation in the fight for the top-9.
Portugal still seems the clear winner for spot 6, while Turkey and Netherlands are in a close fight for spot 9, with Ukraine just above them (Ajax - Kiev is an interesting fight here, though both teams will go to a groupstage)
I think you should change your prediction method slightly - for each round with no seeding (EL R16 and further, CL QF and further) and also EL R32 for CL 3rd pot teams (since no team have a seeding advantage in the CL draw): all teams should get 2 points, and the highest seeded teams should still qualify. I think it would give a more reliable results, since there isn't much difference between those teams.
In practice that would mean: CL: W lose 3 points, F lose 1 point, QF get 1 point, 4 highest ranked GS pot 3 teams lose 1 point, 4 lowest ranked GS pot 3 teams get 1 point. EL: W lose 4 points, F lose 2 points, SF lose 1 point, eighth-finalists get 1 point.
Hi Amir, I do use real coefficient for the TH, as the qualification is the most important result. And because the team played so many matches the coefficient has already taken that into account.
I can try to see what the difference will be with your calculation. For top-5 countries it doesn't matter much as the fifferences are somewhat bigger there anyway , and for the other countries a few points won't be a big difference. But 6th and 9th spot are decided by a few points....