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UC eliminations, draws and domestic weekend 23/3 in
Congratulations Olympiakos for their next championship! It means we are getting to the final phase of the championships. In other countries - Malta, Cyprus the play-offs have also started. It will be exciting times to come. Talking about the ' big' countries: ManUtd is slipping, while Liverpool is pushing strong. In Spain Barca is holding on to their advantage. In Italy Inter also looks very solid. But in France and Germany there are a number of title-candidates, within just a few points. Fantastic weeks to come there! in Portugal it looks to be Porto (as usual?) and in Holland it is going to be a new name on top: AZ. They are on the border of pot2 and 3 in CL. HSV and Shakhtar can still pass them, so this might be an interesting route to follow in the UC.
Olympiakos have qualified for CL-Q2 and might meet there APOEL or Anorthosis, or BATE(if Artmedia and Dinamo Zagreb qualify). Plenty of chance still to stumble for some big champions in Q2. But that is all still far away. Let's first get the championship decided..
Looking at the league standings this year, it looks the countries that are going to have close to maximum possible predicted points next year (2010) are Spain, France, Portugal, Bulgaria, Denmark (5.700 next year), Israel (5.000), and Switzerland (5.675). The teams that are qualified to Europe based on this week's standings are the ones with the most points in these countries.
On the other hand, some countries will have far from maximum possible points. England for example will miss out on the high coefficients of Newcastle, Middlesbrogh, and probably Tottenham. In Germany, Werder, Schalke and Leverkusen are all currently out this week. If that stays the same the coefficient next year will be much lower. For Romania, a lot depends on whether Steaua can enter the Europe League. At present, they stand to earn 4.475 points.
I wonder if there's a way for you to make a new graph for next year's total points. We talked about this a while back. I would love to see how the point projection for all the countries changes every week.
How do You think, what will be if, for example, Dynamo Kyiv win UEFA Cup. Dynamo Kyiv go to Champions League in group stage and it's tittleholder of UEFA Cup. What team takes it's place? 6th team from Ukraine?
And one more question. I heard that UEFA change points system in Europe competitions. How it will be?
If the cup winner of a country also qualifies for the Champions League, then the losing team of the cup final is qualified for the UEFA Cup. If both cup finalists qualify for the Champions League, then an additional team based on league position will be qualified. However, the losing cup finalist does not get the UEFA Cup cup-winner spot, but is treated as a league entrant. The 'cup- winner' spot of that country goes to the team with the highest league position. In some countries (England and France) the last league entrant position is given to the League Cup Winner.
I strongly suggest you to join Bert Kassies community and visit his site more often.
Anton, I think Volodymyr means if Ukraine will get an extra Eruopean spot if Dynamo Kyiv wins the Uefa Cup (and plays CL). An extra spot is only given if the team does not qualify by it's domestic league, so if Kyiv would end up on the 6th spot or so. I guess that that will not happen. What will happen with the spot in the new European League GroupStage that is reserved for the TitleHolder is not certain. It could be given to the Cupwinner of the nr 1 country(England), or another team will qualify from the Q4 matches.. Best is indeed to have a look at Bert's website (follow the link ' Bert' on the right side) where there is more about the regulations.
I had started with preparing for the 'predicted country ranking after next season', but then the whole new system came along and I had to reshuffle everything of my already existing sheets. I hope to have more clarity about the new season soon, e.g. regional seeding, so I can pick up again the 'predicted country ranking 2010'. And if that only is ready at th end of the season I will start working on country ranking 2011, to have that ready when something can be said at the end of this year (still a long way to go)
I think you'll find lots of new fans when you do have the 'predicted country ranking after next season' graph up and running. I would love to see it as a graph, changing every week. I think the changes could be much bigger every week than for the current year prediction, so it will be far more fascinating to follow. And some calculations are just not intuitive - sometimes a country will see the highest coefficient if a team with a low coefficient gets automatic qualification to the CL group stage (like Cluj). And sometimes having the highest coefficient team go to the Europe League will result in a higher predicted coefficient. And of-course the domestic cup situation is complicated always until the end of the season. And something else that's interesting is how this year's performance changes next year's prediction. Not intuitively obvious.
One thing you say that I'm not clear about is the clarity concerning regional seedings. Would it not be easy to simply use the sheets you have now? Use them with the assumptions you have now for Europe league participants and you can get very interesting preliminary predictions. Then, when you have more info coming in you can adjust the assumptions.